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UKRAINE-RUSSIA CONFLICT AND THE SUWALKI GAP


Russia is divided into 85 states. One of these is Kaliningrad. Its population under 1 million people occupy 15,000 square kilometres (5,791 square miles) of land, which is equal to the size of Timor Leste / East Timor. Kaliningrad is strangely located 300km west of mainland Russia, resting beside Lithuania, Poland and the Baltic sea.

Germany was coerced to give up huge patches of its conquered land at the end of WWII. In 1945 the Potsdam Agreement was signed by the USSR (now Russia), Britain and the USA. It specifically gave Kaliningrad (known as the German Königsberg at the time) to Russia, without opposition. That’s because Russia had already invaded and taken the area from Germany a few months earlier.
It was during the German retreat in 1945 that Kaliningrad (then Königsberg) was claimed by the Soviets. Previously the territory had been part of East Prussia (not Russia) which was part of the German Empire.
The narrow land corridor between Poland and Lithuania, the section of Suwalki-Kaunas, would be the key for the transfer of NATO forces to come to the aid of the Baltics.

To counter NATO forces traveling to the rescue of Ukraine, the Russians could deploy forces in the Kaliningrad region, or the grouping of troops in Belarus. It should be understood that from an operational-strategic point of view, the Belarusian army is a de facto part of the Russian armed forces. In any event, Russian army and the forces of Belarus would have the advantage of time: being a party that initiated the aggression, they can be used to concentrate power in one place.

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